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I have been very fortunate in the last few weeks and I have a lot to be grateful for. Gratitude starts with the simplest step of appreciating our being present in our life. My good mood comes from recently celebrating with family and friends the marriage of my second daughter, Erin. Becoming a parent was probably the most exciting time of my life. I have been blessed three times, and each child has gifted me continuously with so much joy. This weekend, I will celebrate Father’s Day, in two weeks I will celebrate 33 years of marriage, Independence Day and my 60th birthday. These comments are the result of trying to recognize the good in life every day. I believe we all can celebrate small and large victories, with the habit of stopping and taking a moment to reflect.

I also believe that we need to understand gratitude on a professional and financial level. I am fortunate to have Travis as my partner because he brings a very calming effect to our strategy discussions. We work in the greatest economy in the world. The U.S.A. has many of the greatest companies, leading the world with exciting technologies in computing, communication and health care. These companies operate thanks to a phenomenal education, legal and financial support system. Our job is made difficult not by our inability to find companies, but because we have too many great ones to choose from.

We are fortunate to have Morningstar as a partner to help us evaluate thousands of securities worldwide while also providing insights on economic, tax and planning ideas that benefit our clients. Using their data and our process for evaluating quality and value, we have acquired many great companies and delivered solid results for our clients.

The markets have been driven by momentum, with ten large companies leading the way. Among those, we have held Apple, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft and Facebook in various portfolios. There are several clouds sitting on the horizon with the potential to rain on our parade. There are several macroeconomic factors summarized by the LEI (Leading Economic Indicators) show an economy which is slowing. The increase of interest rates by almost 5% has affected the purchase of goods and services. The higher price of food and energy is causing consumers to think more about what to purchase and to adjust behavior. These challenges are a natural part of the economy and we are watching closely so that the client portfolios will be well prepared. The fixed income portion of our clients’ portfolios is built to take advantage of higher rates and we are preparing for a pivot. As we approach the end of the Fed raising rates, then we may consider becoming a little more aggressive by owning longer dated bonds.

I hope all of us can start our summers with positive feelings after a challenging first half for the economy. We continue our vigilance, and we look forward to meeting and addressing challenges which may occur during the second half. We welcome your comments and we stand ready to help answer any questions. As always, we appreciate your continued trust.

~ Steve Davenport, CFA

My daughter plays for her high school varsity soccer team. At about this time last year, they went to the state championship and won. It was an exciting time for the school and for the team, but my daughter couldn’t help but be a little disappointed. She was not a starter and in that championship game, she didn’t get to play. After that experience, my daughter resolved to do better. She trained in the off-season. She played for a club team in the fall. When high school soccer started this spring, she was ready and her efforts paid off. Not only did her team win a second straight state championship, but my daughter was a starter for the team and the coach honored her as the most improved player. To say this season was more satisfying for her is an understatement. She is already looking ahead to next season, working on a plan to improve again.

Improving at anything—whether it’s at sports or business—can be humbling. It’s hard enough to address the things we struggle with, but it’s even harder to take a critical eye to the things we think we do well. As investment managers, we challenge our assumptions. We know that owning quality companies is a strategy that has benefitted generations of investors. We also know that our process for finding quality companies has delivered solid results. But we deconstruct our strategy anyway, looking for ways to improve. In the past, this has led us to refine our approach. At one time, it was enough for us to own a company if they were one of the biggest in their industry, and the stock was trading at a good price. Today, we know it’s better for a company to also have a catalyst for growth, and we have ways of quantifying how profitable and financially stable they are. These metrics don’t help us make perfect decisions, but they help us make more informed decisions and that’s a benefit to our clients.

Just as we look for ways to improve our investment process, many of the companies we own also look for ways to improve what they do—in fact, that’s a hallmark of a quality business. In some cases, this means not just refining the business, but rethinking it altogether and dismantling it if necessary. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a good example of this. For years, the company has operated two segments; a healthcare business that produces pharmaceuticals and medical devices, and a consumer business that produces personal and baby care products. While both segments are strong, management has decided to spin off the consumer business as a separate company. Johnson & Johnson, the medical company, will still be a world class developer of pharmaceuticals and medical devices. The new company, Kenvue (KVUE), will be a top competitor to other consumer product companies like Procter & Gamble (PG). And each company will be able to focus on what they do best, a change management believes will be an improvement for shareholders.

My daughter improved her soccer skills to benefit her team. We improve our investment process to benefit our clients. Johnson & Johnson is improving their operations to benefit shareholders. None of these things would be possible without the desire to achieve something better, a little humility and a willingness to work and change if necessary. But often, the results are worth the effort.

~ Travis Raish, CFA

As someone who lacks patience, playing chess is a great exercise. The game forces me to look forward several moves, trying to imagine what my opponent will do. I’ll craft a complicated trap that unfolds over time—as often as not, the plan and the trap will change as we trade pieces. But as long as I continue to evaluate my options and stay focused on my goal, I have a chance that things will work out to my advantage.

Investing is similar. We can use all the research and forethought we have, and we can have the best processes and strategy in place. But sometimes, the unexpected happens. Just like an opponent in chess might make a move I didn’t consider, causing me to reevaluate what I am doing, things change in the markets and we have to consider the impact of that new information on our existing investments. Sometimes our plans will change because of this new information, but being patient and letting things unfold naturally is often the better course.

This is essentially what happened with Nvidia. If you are unfamiliar with the company, they are the premier global manufacturer of graphics processors, and their semiconductor chipsets are found in the fastest computers running the most powerful applications. Years ago, we bought the company because of the quality of their products, and because they were involved in several emerging technologies.

Last year, the company had a bit of a setback. As cryptocurrencies declined, so did Nvidia’s stock, because their processors are used by cryptocurrency miners. This was particularly frustrating for us because we didn’t buy the company for its connection to crypto. And just like I have had to consider sacrificing a good piece in chess, hoping it’ll improve my overall position on the board, we gave thought to selling this good company because of the negative sentiment around crypto, hoping it might improve the overall portfolio.

I’m glad we were patient with the company. As it happens, Nvidia’s chipsets are also favored in computers running artificial intelligence (AI). As that segment of the technology marketplace has taken off this year, so has Nvidia’s stock returned to favor among investors. This isn’t to say that all of our decisions work out this way or this well. We can’t control the markets and sometimes things don’t work out the way we expect them to. But as long as we focus on the things that matter—buying companies with sustainable competitive advantages—and then have the patience to allow our companies to develop through tough situations, we are in the best position to have things work out to our advantage.

~ Steve Davenport, CFA

The big news in the past week has been the collapse of two banks. But Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are not your friendly neighborhood lending institutions. Both take risks by loaning money to high-risk businesses, like early stage tech startups, and they attract very different depositors and investors as a result.

Of course, as news broke that the Fed was going to step in to protect investors from both banks, investors drew comparisons to the credit crisis fifteen years ago. But the environment then was very different from the environment today. Following a stock market meltdown at the start of this millennium, investors rediscovered real estate at a time when lending standards were lax. Stories abound of investors borrowing money for an investment property using little but a wink and a smile to secure their loan. Rightfully, the credit market collapsed under the weight of big bank stupidity and greed, and the effect rippled through the entire industry, affecting every community, because even some of the smallest and most well-run banks had exposure to similar low-quality loans.

It’s difficult to tell what other banks might be affected by the same challenges as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, but the number of banks is likely only a fraction of the industry. It’s important to remember that news travels fast and it is quickly absorbed by millions of people around the world. Investors react quickly and dramatically to news, especially when the news is bad or fear-inducing. That also means they overreact. What we see in the markets today are emotionally charged decisions being made by fearful individuals. Unfortunately, these things happen frequently. Fortunately, they rarely amount to much and they often translate into wonderful buying opportunities.

For us, it’s worth watching and monitoring what happens with the Fed, interest rates, inflation, and the banking industry, especially as it relates to some of the more aggressively positioned lenders. But the banks we own tend to be profitable, have good cash flows, and have diverse offerings so that even if one area of their business isn’t working as well, they have others to pick up the pace.

As we start to see the daffodils in bloom, we are reminded that spring is on the way. Before we are overcome with blooms and pollen, I was thinking about how we can enjoy the trees during the winter months. The redbud tree in my yard is a Forest Pansy, which is unique for its burgundy leaves and its shorter height.

All redbuds are amazing for the brilliant flowers which signal spring has arrived. When I look at the branches in winter, I am struck by the path of the branches reaching for the sun. Like all trees, they want the sun to help with photosynthesis and to create energy for growth. Most tree branches are fairly straight, while some take a more curved path. Redbud branches have a zig-zag pattern to get where they are going.

As I sit here trying to determine where the economy and markets are headed, I am struck by the simple linear or curved path that most people assume for the future. The line into the future may look straight when we take a 10-year to 20-year horizon, but in reality, there are many twists and turns on the way.

We are living during a complicated time for technology, the environment and politics. These elements contribute to (or detract from) the path and to our eventual outcomes in our lives. There are several concerns on our radar:

1. Recession in the next 12 months
2. Inflation in our goods and services
3. Ongoing conflict in Ukraine
4. Uncertain relationship with China

All these items may bring some rain on our parade, but we have seen them before and we can navigate them with due diligence. We strive for value, quality and balance in our portfolios, so there are always choices to be made.

How we feel about our path can also affect the journey. When I look closely at the redbud, I see a disjointed development of the branches and flowers. When looking from afar at the tree filled with flowers, the underlying branch are hidden, and I am overcome by the colors.

I think the jagged path is a much better way to anticipate the path forward for markets and the economy. Like the redbud branches, they grow in one direction, but adjust frequently. It is still moving in an upward direction, but slight changes help it to find the sun. We are all on a path towards some end goals, but the turns and changes are to be expected. Expecting a linear or smooth path is very comforting, but ultimately there are bumps and turns on the road. It may be better to enjoy the straight sections of progress as the exception versus the rule.

The recent frost has also hurt some of the shrubs, but good roots, healthy trimming and fertilizer can help the plants to recover. Our economy is similar. We go through difficult times, but we adapt and are better off for the challenges. Let’s change our expectations and celebrate the blooms on every branch.

~ Stephen Davenport, CFA

The difference between December 31 and January 1 is only a day. But in that one day, most of us find renewed hope. Hope that the coming year will bless us with good health, good fortune, or success. It might be an arbitrary line we draw in the sand, but the dawn of a new year carries with it a certain optimism. Many of us need that after last year.

Two-thousand twenty-two was a tough year for the markets. Every major market was down for the year, including US and foreign stocks and bonds. And mostly, they were all down between 15-20%.

The catalyst for the markets losing value last year was the Fed pushing interest rates higher; a reaction to inflation levels not seen in forty years. Today, borrowing rates look more like they did fifteen years ago. Even so, while many Americans might be second guessing whether they really want to spend money on homes, cars, and vacations, borrowing rates are still low by historical standards.

For reference, the Fed’s actions were necessary and expected. In 2020, our government’s response to Covid was to shut down the economy. At the same time, they funneled billions of dollars into the economy, supporting individuals unable to work, and bailing out businesses on the threshold of bankruptcy. It was a year of non-production, yet Americans were still flush with cash. And what happens when we have too much money chasing too few goods, or services, or assets? Prices go up. We witnessed this in late 2020 and for most of 2021 as the prices of assets like real estate and stocks ballooned.

But the government cannot shut down the economy and flood the market with money and expect for there to be no consequences. Inflation, as we know, became a major problem. And to correct that problem, our leaders had to undo what they did. They had to reverse the flow of money, pulling dollars out of the economy. The challenges we should have experienced in 2020 were simply delayed. We experienced them in 2022 as the money supply shrank.

William Shakespeare said, “expectation is the root of all heartache.” Keeping that wisdom in mind, knowing full well our prognostications for 2023 are unlikely to be accurate, we still have a few expectations for the year.

First, we expect the Fed will continue to be hawkish on interest rates. While their efforts to curb inflation have had early signs of success, the Fed may have to raise rates a bit more. By design, this should slow the US economy.

Second, we don’t expect Congress to offer the same bailouts they did in the past. This means that many of the weakest businesses in the US will struggle and may need to seek partnerships that will allow them to continue to operate as they had.

Third, we expect strong businesses will continue to lead the way in every industry. Many of the best businesses have already made changes to help improve profitability and growth; changes that will serve them well if economic growth slows. Sticking with dominant and profitable businesses has always been our approach, and we will continue to act using our tried-and-true approach.

Investors of late are reacting as they should, with a sense of optimism that this year may be better than last. They are reacting appropriately to good news and bad news about corporate business and earnings prospects for the coming year. We can’t expect the coming year to be great just because of that, but it’s a nice start to 2023.

~ Travis Raish, CFA

My favorite song of the Christmas season is the Little Drummer Boy. It reveals the best of our nature and reminds us we are meant to serve others. He didn’t have gold, frankincense or myrrh. He did not come on a camel or in a caravan. He came by foot with his drum and a song in his heart. The little drummer boy gave what he could. He gave something from his heart.

As we look forward to Christmas and shared time with family, we also take time to look back over the past year and ask ourselves if, in the spirit of the little drummer boy, we also gave the best we could. Certainly, we look at the “results” of the year, and how our investments performed. But more importantly, we consider the decisions we made as advisors and ask if we adhered to our simple, timeless process. After all, we can’t control the outcome, but we can control the decisions we make along the way.

Our philosophy is simple. We believe that buying quality companies at reasonable values and maintaining balance in our portfolios is the best way to deliver solid results.

• Quality—we look for companies that have sustainable competitive advantages.
• Value—we prefer companies that are priced fairly given their prospects for growth and profitability.
• Balance—we balance investments across sectors because we want our portfolios to be driven by economic forces.
• Results—we have a “sleep well at night” portfolio, full of companies that are often the best at what they do, that are likely to get stronger during challenging economic periods, and thrive when conditions are good.

In many ways, we also want to emulate the same virtues so beautifully demonstrated by the Little Drummer Boy. He gave the best he had to offer; a gift only he could give. He played from the heart and with great intent. And while he couldn’t have known exactly who the baby Jesus was, he knew enough to be humbled by the experience and was joyful in his presence.

The Little Drummer Boy had the heart of a servant, and it’s with this servant mindset that we thank you for your continued trust, wishing you a Merry Christmas and a new year full of blessings … pa-rum pum pum pum.

~ Steve Davenport, CFA

My daughter plays club soccer. Like most teams, the roster changes every year as girls come and go for various personal and family reasons. And because the roster changes, it always takes a while for the team to gel when a new season gets underway.

Earlier this season, my daughter’s team lost to another club. It was a tough loss too. Our team was never in the game. They came out flat. The pace of their play was slow. Their passes were off. They missed a lot of shots. From start to finish, the team never clicked. And so it was that when my daughter’s team had a rematch toward the end of the season, I’m embarrassed to say I didn’t expect anything different. But unlike that earlier game, our team played fast, they communicated with each other, and they brought a lot more energy to the field. I wish I could say their efforts paid off with a win, but even with a tie, the girls were all smiles as they walked off the field. They played a better game, and they knew it.

A shift in momentum like what my daughter’s team experienced happens elsewhere, including the stock market. And just like in sports, sometimes all it takes is a spark of optimism, or worry, to send things moving in the other direction. We’ve seen plenty of momentum swings in the markets over the last few years. Rising inflation and interest rates, declining corporate profits, economic malaise, and the recent midterm election have given investors plenty of things to worry about. And true to form, investors have channeled that worry into selling investments and driving down the market. But just as they can be skittish and prone to overreact, investors are also hopeful, especially in the U.S.

Recent reports have been nothing to cheer about in and of themselves. Inflation is still running at an annual rate of 7.7% and the Fed funds rate is 3.75% and going higher. But investors also know that inflation is cooling, and the Fed is likely to slow the pace of rate hikes. This doesn’t mean economic conditions are back to normal, but it does mean that a more normal environment may be on the horizon. Improvement gives us hope, and investors’ hope that brighter days may still be ahead, is all it took to shift momentum and propel the market higher in recent weeks.

It is unlikely that the markets will continue a steady march upward from this point forward. There is always an ebb and flow to momentum and the ride will be bumpy. Until inflation is where it’s supposed to be—hovering around 3% or less—the actions of Congress and the Fed will keep downward pressure on assets. But investors are already hopeful. Despite the challenges we face, they are looking for the good news and finding reasons to pass along an infectious optimism.

Counting our blessings comes naturally to many of us this time of year. Americans often give thanks for having family and friends to spend the holidays with, for having good health, or for having a good job. Many of us are also grateful for the opportunity to live in the greatest nation in the world in the moment of its greatest prosperity. And with that gratitude, we remember our lives wouldn’t be nearly as blessed if it weren’t for the sacrifices of the brave men and women who serve in our military and law enforcement. And while it certainly doesn’t rank as high as family, health, or safety, we can also give thanks this holiday season for the hope made possible by these other blessings—the hope that our best days are still ahead.

~ Travis Raish, CFA

There are certain timeless truths about money that generations of Americans have used to grow and preserve wealth. These truths are simple—as basic as building blocks—and when we stack them together, they form the foundation of a financial plan that can help us weather difficult times. These principles are so important, in fact, the CFA Institute dedicates most of the third year, final exam, to this material.

The process to achieving investment success—the same process we use when we work with our clients—is this:

1. Evaluate risk and return—understand your needs for income and investment growth based on your willingness and ability to take risk
2. Allocate assets—divide your portfolio between risky investments (stocks) and safe investments (bonds/cash) to satisfy your needs
3. Select investments—use a systematic approach to identify quality companies trading at good values
4. Locate investments—consider tax and planning needs to place the rights assets in the right place
5. Overlay options—supplement your assets with equity options for added income or protection, when necessary
6. Manage expectations—encourage you to keep a long-term perspective to avoid getting caught up in the short-term emotion of the markets

There are several forces that work to undermine these principles, causing us to lose sight of our bigger goals, taking us off track. The financial and mainstream media thrive on broadcasting dramatic news. And when investors increasingly search terms like recession, job losses and market collapse on Google, the media responds with more inflammatory talk. We can make the situation worse by reacting. But instead of worrying whether this time is different and making poorly timed, emotionally charged decisions about our money, we do well to remember that Rome was not built in a day, and it wasn’t destroyed in a flash crash either.

The filter we need to help us during times like these is patience. One way to do that is to ask, “Is this moment going to be remembered in ten years?” Even during troubling times—Y2K, 9-11, the Dot-com bubble, the credit crisis, the COVID pandemic, today’s economic and societal problems—great companies with solid management teams don’t just survive these periods, they are stronger and better for having gone through what they did. Companies like Microsoft, Costco, Southern Company, and Chevron, to name a few of the leaders in our portfolios, managed through difficult times before, and they will continue to do so today.

As we mentioned in a previous post, we offer three investment strategies beyond our flagship Core Stock portfolio. One of those, our Global Dividend portfolio, recently crossed the one-year mark with great success. The portfolio has fifty stocks evenly divided between the US and international markets. Of course, these companies meet our quality standard, but we also look for companies capable of faithfully returning capital to shareholders through a stable and growing dividend, a sign that the management teams of these dominant companies will reward our patience even in difficult times. The portfolio boasts a yield of 3.9%, a pleasant bonus given most of these companies are trading at a discount to their fair value, and they still have room to grow.

To be sure, the Fed and Congress will continue to act to get inflation under control and to prop up the economy. They have complicated analytical processes that often result in confusing policies, and until investors are assured that we are on the right side of these challenges, implementing the government’s strategies will undoubtedly cause volatility in the market. Until then, we remember that investing is only one part of the process. The others—maintaining balance, focusing on the long-term, managing our expectations and even watching our spending and planning prudently—will be helpful skills during times like these.

Please contact us with any questions you have. Our door is always open. And please know we wish you and your family the best as leaves begin to fall.

– Steve Davenport, CFA

Our monthly articles tend to be more serious, so this month we thought we would lighten things up with some fun facts related to money, debt, housing and income that aren’t exactly common knowledge. Enjoy!

The study of money is called numismatics.

A penny costs more to make than it is worth. According to the U.S. Mint, it cost 1.7 cents to make one penny.

One bill weighs 1 gram and 454 bills equal one pound. This means if you have $1 million in singles, it will weigh over 1 ton. A suitcase of $1 million in $100 bills weighs over 20 pounds. All U.S. bills cost less than $0.20 to make.

Here are some interesting facts about the lifespan of money:

• $100 bill lasts 22.9 years.
• $50 bill lasts 12.2 years.
• $20 bill lasts 7.8 years.
• $10 bill lasts 5.3 years.
• $5 bill lasts 4.7 years.
• $1 bill lasts 6.6 years.
• $5 bills are used the most in transactions, which is why they have the lowest lifespan. We handle $100 bills the least, which is why they have the longest lifespan.

There is no such thing as “paper” money. Federal Reserve notes are made of 25% linen and 75% cotton, not paper. Two separate agencies create coins and paper money. When you think of creating money, your mind may go straight to the U.S. Mint. But in reality, the U.S. Mint only makes coins. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing (BEP) is actually the agency that makes paper money.

Most U.S. currency is outside of the United States. According to authorities, between one-half and two-thirds of the value of all U.S. currency in circulation is outside the U.S. This is mostly because the U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency.

Current U.S. total debt is $30.85 trillion. Considering that the population of the U.S. is approximately 332 million, that debt equates to nearly $93,000 of debt per person.

As of 2Q2022, total public debt as a percentage of GDP was 122.85%. For reference, Venezuela has the highest debt-to-GDP at 350%. Including Venezuela, there are only eleven countries in the world with a higher debt-to-GDP than the U.S.

Expectedly, areas with higher housing prices tend to have lower homeownership rates. According to the latest census data, 65.4% of U.S. households own their home. The District of Columbia has the lowest rate of homeownership, at 40.3%. California, New York, and Hawaii are among the states with the highest housing prices and the lowest levels of homeownership. States with relatively low housing costs tend to have higher levels of homeownership. West Virginia, which has the lowest typical-house cost, also has the highest homeownership rate, with 79.6% of residents owning their own home.

Student loan debt in the U.S.:

• $1.75 trillion in total student loan debt (including federal and private loans). $28,950 owed per borrower on average.
• About 92% of all student debt are federal student loans; the remaining amount is private student loans.
• 55% of students from public four-year institutions had student loans. 57% of students from private nonprofit four-year institutions took on education debt.

The average salary in the U.S. is $58,260. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average person makes $58,260 a year in the U.S. That breaks down to around $28.01 an hour. Here are 2020 Bureau of Labor Statistics on average annual income by education level:

• Less than a high school diploma—$30,784
• High school education—$38,792
• Attended some college—$43,316
• Two-year college degree—$46,124
• Bachelor’s degree—$64,896
• Master’s degree—$77,844
• Doctorate degree—$97,916

Gambling in the U.S. brings in more revenue than theme parks, sporting events, cruise ships, and music combined.

The average American pays $273 a month for subscription services.

The average secured credit card’s APR is currently 18.1%, for example, while credit cards for people with excellent credit charge 13.13%. On average, Americans have four credit cards. As of 1Q2022, Americans owe over $800 billion in credit card debt.

According to the Social Security Administration, retirement benefits are only designed to replace approximately 40% of the average worker’s wages.

The average credit score in the U.S. is at an all-time high of 711. FICO scores break down in the following manner:

• 800 to 850: Exceptional
• 740 to 799: Very good
• 670 to 739: Good
• 580 to 669: Fair
• 300 to 579: Very poor

When making an investment, the “Rule of 72” can help you understand the time it will take for it to double: you divide 72 by the expected rate of return to estimate how many years it will take to double the original amount.

Sources:

• 101 Fascinating Money Facts » Savoteur
• 42 Incredibly Fun Facts About Money I Bet You Didn’t Know – MoneySmartGuides.com
• 21 Fun Money Facts You May Not Know! | Clever Girl Finance
• Consumer Debt Statistics & Demographics in America
• Money Facts: 16 Mind-Blowing Truths About Money | Reader’s Digest (rd.com)
• 99 Mind Blowing Money Facts [2022] (einvestingforbeginners.com)
• 60 Personal Finance Statistics You Should Know About [2022] (youngandtheinvested.com)
• Average 401(k) Balance By Age—Forbes Advisor
• Median Home Price by State 2022 (worldpopulationreview.com)
• 2022 Student Loan Debt Statistics: Average Student Loan Debt—Forbes Advisor
• Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
• Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDEGDQ188S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
• Fun Facts ~ Finance | Project Venture (projectventureusa.org)
• 47+ Fascinating Financial Literacy Statistics in 2022 (annuity.org)