Author: Travis

As we reflect on another year, we’re reminded that the most meaningful parts of life rarely show up on a balance sheet. Markets rise and fall, portfolios change, and economic headlines come and go—but the constants that truly sustain us are far deeper: faith, family, friendship, and the blessing of walking alongside people we care about.
 
This season naturally invites us to pause and give thanks. We are profoundly grateful for the trust you place in us. In a world that often feels hurried and uncertain, your willingness to let us serve you—your families, your goals, and your future—is a gift we do not take lightly. 
 
We are also reminded that stewardship is not just a financial concept; it’s a calling. Helping you navigate decisions, plan for the future, and pursue the life you feel led to live is work we approach with humility. We believe God places people in our path for a purpose, and we are thankful that He has allowed our paths to cross with yours.
 
Of course, we remain attentive to the markets and the economic landscape. There will always be seasons of growth and seasons of challenge, and we continue to monitor both with diligence and care. But our confidence is not rooted in short‑term movements. It is rooted in long‑term discipline, thoughtful planning, and the belief that wisdom and patience are rewarded over time. More importantly, our confidence is strengthened by the lasting relationships we have with you.
 
As you gather with loved ones in the weeks ahead, we hope you find rest, joy, and moments of genuine connection. May your homes be filled with peace, your hearts with gratitude, and your days with reminders of God’s faithfulness.
 
Wishing you and your family a season filled with grace and gratitude.

As autumn arrives and the colors on the trees begin to change, we prepare for Thanksgiving—a holiday that serves as a meaningful reminder of celebration and gratitude. This year, I feel especially fortunate, both personally and professionally.

Personal Reflections

At home, we’ve completed several projects that make us feel settled and comfortable. We enjoy the weather and the friendliness of our Charlotte neighbors, and being closer to our children allows us to participate more fully in their lives.

I’ve also been amazed by the travels of my family: my son vacationed in Thailand, my daughter attended a wedding in South Korea, and my oldest participated in a conference in Turkey. Though I haven’t visited these places myself, their experiences feel like part of my own journey. In a world that can often seem complex and troubling, these stories provide perspective and remind me of the kindness and connection that exist everywhere—from strangers offering directions to shopkeepers with cousins in Texas. We are far more connected, locally and globally, than we often realize.

Professional Growth

At Circa Capital, we recently launched an Advisory Board to strengthen our organization and enhance the results we deliver for clients. Travis and I are always seeking ways to improve the client experience, and during our two meetings this year, these professionals have already provided invaluable insights. Please join me in welcoming them to the Circa Capital family:

• Clement Miller, CFA – Brings years of international equity management experience at M&T Bank and co-hosts Skeptics Guide to Investing. He also served as President of CFA Society Baltimore.
• George Hauptfuhrer, CFA – Has built an extensive career at Prime Buchholz and Invesco, consulting and managing dividend strategies. He is also a dedicated volunteer with CFA Institute and CFA Society Atlanta.
• James Callahan, CFA, CPA – A seasoned high-yield credit analyst with a 20-year career at State Street.
• Marcus Sturdivant Sr., MBA – Combines life experience with a passion for financial literacy. He is actively growing his RIA business, The ABC Squared, LLC.

The Advisory Board will meet quarterly to review strategies and all aspects of our business operations. Each member brings tremendous expertise, and we look forward to channeling their insights into our best ideas.

Continuing Education

I also invite you to explore the podcast Clem and I have been producing for the past two years, Skeptics Guide to Investing. Designed for educational purposes, the podcast aims to improve financial wellness by helping listeners understand the role of stocks and bonds within their strategies. In a media environment filled with voices declaring “this is the best stock,” our goal is to provide perspective—examining how news events may influence assets and the broader economy. We welcome your feedback as we continue to refine the show.
https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Gratitude

On both personal and professional fronts, I am deeply thankful. To our clients, thank you for placing your trust in us. Let’s continue to approach markets—and life itself—with a spirit of gratitude.

~ Steve Davenport, CFA

Market sentiment is a powerful force. It’s often said that fear and greed drive the markets more than fundamentals — and right now, the pendulum is swinging toward optimism. As of early October, the CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 57, signaling mild greed. That’s a notable shift from the neutral-to-fearful readings we saw earlier this year, and it reflects growing investor confidence amid stabilizing inflation and resilient economic data.

In the U.S., behavioral biases tend to amplify market cycles. When fear dominates — triggered by headlines about rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, or recession risks — investors often retreat, selling quality assets at a discount. Conversely, when greed takes over, enthusiasm can outpace reality, leading to frothy valuations and speculative excess. The challenge is not avoiding emotion, but recognizing it and staying grounded.

This year has tested that discipline. Volatility in Q1 gave way to cautious optimism in Q2, and now, with GDP growth holding at 3.3% and inflation easing to 2.9%, investors are beginning to re-engage. The upcoming Fed meeting and Q3 earnings season will offer further clarity, but early signals suggest a soft landing is still in play — a scenario many dismissed just months ago.

So what’s the takeaway? Emotional cycles are inevitable, but they don’t have to dictate your strategy. Long-term investors who stayed the course through recent uncertainty are now seeing the benefits of patience. Diversification, quality, and a clear understanding of personal goals remain the best antidotes to market mood swings.

Looking ahead, there’s reason for optimism. The labor market remains strong, consumer spending is steady, and innovation — especially in AI, energy, and healthcare — continues to drive growth. While risks persist, the foundation is solid. For investors willing to tune out the noise and focus on fundamentals, this environment offers opportunity.

As always, staying informed is key, but whether markets are fearful or greedy, your plan should be built on something sturdier than sentiment.

~ Travis Raish, CFA

Like most families with school-aged kids, the school year keeps us busy—not just during the week, but on evenings and weekends, too. And as the school year goes along, the intensity ramps up. Beyond the usual sports and activities, we’re suddenly juggling end-of-year programs, parties, and ceremonies. I joke that we don’t so much glide into summer as crash-land into it—by the time summer rolls around, we need the break.

This year felt familiar in that whirlwind kind of way, with one major difference: our daughter graduated from high school. We knew the day would come, but that didn’t make it any less emotional. High school and college graduations stir up a beautiful mix of feelings. We look back on all the memories we’ve made, and at the same time, we’re filled with excitement (and maybe a few nerves) about what’s next—especially when our kids are heading off to study something they’re passionate about.

Big transitions are exciting, nerve-racking, fulfilling, even scary. Whether it’s graduation, starting a new job, getting married, having children, retiring, or even saying goodbye to a loved one—these seasons of change are deeply impactful.

One aspect of transitions that often stirs anxiety is the financial side. Moving from high school to college, college to career, career to family life, or family life to retirement—each stage brings new financial responsibilities. That’s why planning is key. It’s not just about having savings and investments in place—it’s about making sure those investments are balanced and aligned with your goals.

To help with that, we’re rolling out a new software program this summer. It’ll let you track your investments in real time, but more importantly, it’ll help you map out your goals—whether you’re just starting out or planning your legacy. Our hope is that this tool will ease the stress of life’s transitions and free you up to focus on what really matters: making the most of the big and little moments you have with the people you love.

~Travis Raish, CFA

Have you ever been under a power line or stopped at a traffic light, only to have the sound on your radio cut out, overwhelmed by static? Sometimes it’s so bad you can barely hear the program you were enjoying. Maybe you turn up the volume, straining to catch the voice behind the noise. But often, even that’s not enough to allow us to hear the person clearly. The stock market can feel the same way—important signals are often drowned out by the constant buzz of news and speculation.

The stock market is an incredible tool. It allows us to invest in great businesses and adjust our portfolios with ease. But this convenience comes with a challenge: it’s almost too easy to react impulsively, especially when the noise of the marketplace—media headlines, social media chatter, and economic fears—distracts us from what truly matters. This noise can lead investors to make the wrong decisions at the worst possible times.

Over my 30+ years in this industry, I’ve seen it all: the dot-com bubble, 9/11, the credit crisis, COVID, and countless other crises, both real and exaggerated. Time and again, I’ve witnessed how things often turn out better than expected. Even when the outlook seems bleak, markets recover, mistakes are corrected, and great businesses continue to thrive.

Take the credit crisis, for example. It was a near-collapse of the financial system, causing markets to lose significant value in just 18 months. Yet, barely two years later, we were back on track and shortly thereafter, the market had fully recovered. This resilience is a testament to the strength of well-managed companies that adapt, innovate, and grow—even in the face of adversity.

As investors, it’s crucial to tune out the noise and focus on the fundamentals. We don’t own the stock market; we own businesses—businesses that have weathered far worse and emerged stronger. By staying disciplined and avoiding emotional reactions, we can trust in the long-term success of these companies and the value they create for their customers and shareholders.

~ Travis Raish, CFA

As the new year begins, many of us aim to adopt healthier diets and habits. Similarly, it’s crucial to pay attention to our finances and investments at the start of the year.

Our investment decisions are guided by our research and the evaluations we make about the companies we own, their expected growth, profitability and financial stability. Some industries focus on short-term outlooks, while others take a longer view. Each company’s growth path is unique, and understanding this is key to making informed investment choices.

The new year also brings the challenge of preparing for Tax Day. The upcoming tax season and the new administration’s policies will be significant. Tax cuts from the Trump administration are set to expire at the end of 2025. While corporate tax reductions were made permanent, individual tax cuts were temporary. Economic forecasts suggest these tax cuts might be extended, providing much-needed certainty for planning.

At Circa Capital, we prepare our clients for any changes, good or bad. Given significant news events this year—the Gaza ceasefire, Ukraine peace talks, DeepSeek’s impact on technology, China’s economic weakness, US tax policy—it’s essential to act proactively rather than reactively.

One of the best strategies for clients is rebalancing their asset mix. The primary decision involves determining the right balance between equity (risk) and bonds (safety). With the stock market’s strong performance over the past two years, we have an opportune moment for taking some profits from companies that have grown a lot, and investing in others that may be a better value, all while making sure we have a good balance between growth and income investments.

We aim to serve our clients not only in an investment role but also as partners. Our goal is to ensure that risk and return, and lifestyle choices are considered to give us the best chance of meeting your needs. To that end, please let us know if you have had any changes to your financial situation you want for us to take into account. We are here to help.

~Steve Davenport, CFA

Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) are revolutionizing various sectors of the economy, ushering in an era of unprecedented growth and innovation. But while most people focus on tech giants like Meta, Google and Microsoft as some of the biggest potential winners, there are other sectors that also stand to benefit. That includes the healthcare, banking, and energy industries, which are often not thought about when the conversation turns to chatbots.

In the healthcare sector, AI can help improve diagnostics, treatment plans, and patient care. Machine learning algorithms can analyze vast amounts of medical data to detect patterns and diagnose diseases with remarkable accuracy. For instance, AI-powered imaging tools can identify abnormalities in medical scans faster and more accurately than human doctors, leading to earlier detection and treatment of conditions such as cancer.

Additionally, AI can personalize treatment plans based on a patient’s genetic makeup, lifestyle, and medical history, improving outcomes and reducing healthcare costs.
The banking industry is also poised to benefit from AI advancements. AI can enhance fraud detection by identifying unusual transaction patterns and flagging potential security breaches in real-time. This not only protects consumers but also saves financial institutions (and the U.S. government) significant amounts of money.

The energy sector is undergoing a transformation with the help of AI technologies. AI can optimize energy production and distribution by predicting demand patterns and managing grid stability. This proactive approach can significantly improve the reliability and stability of the energy supply.

Not every company we own has a direct connection to AI, but over time, we expect most companies to use AI to improve their businesses. In that respect, we are at the front edge of an evolution for almost every industry, and the companies we own are likely to benefit.

As the holiday season approaches and we look back on an eventful year, we are filled with gratitude for your continued trust and partnership. This year has been remarkable in many ways, and as we approach the joyous time of Christmas, we want to share some reflections and positive outlooks on the investment landscape.

2024 has proven to be a year of resilience. Despite facing various challenges and uncertainties, the markets have shown strong growth and recovery. The Magnificent Seven tech giants have particularly stood out, demonstrating their ability to lead the market and drive innovation. As we move into 2025, we remain confident in our strategy of balanced and diversified investments, ensuring that we are well-positioned to seize opportunities while managing risks.

The new year brings with it new opportunities. The investment landscape is rich with potential. As we look ahead, we are excited about the possibilities that lie within sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, robotics and computing. Even sleepy sectors like utilities, energy, financial services and consumer-oriented businesses stand to benefit by emerging technologies, software and hardware. By staying informed and adaptable, we will continue to position our portfolios to benefit from these dynamic and promising areas.

As we gather with our loved ones to celebrate Christmas, we are reminded of the things that truly matter—family, friends, and community. In the spirit of the season, we encourage you to take a moment to appreciate the blessings of the past year and to look forward with hope and optimism.

We extend our warmest wishes to you and your families. May your holiday season be filled with joy, love, and laughter. Thank you for being a valued part of our investment community. Here’s to a wonderful Christmas and a successful and prosperous New Year!